THE CAUSES OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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What you'll need to know...How natural and human processes affect the global energy balance
The atmospheric system, including the natural greenhouse effect and energy balance (incoming shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation)
Changes in the global energy balance, and the role of feedback loops, resulting from:

• terrestrial albedo changes and feedback loops
• solar radiation variations, including global dimming due to volcanic eruptions
• methane gas release and feedback loops
The enhanced greenhouse effect and international variations in greenhouse gas sources and emissions, in relation to economic development, globalization and trade
Synthesis, evaluation and skills opportunities
The complexity of the dynamic climate system and the spatial interactions of different processes and feedback mechanisms

The atmospheric system...
Objective: To be able to describe the functioning of the atmospheric system in terms of the energy balance between solar and long wave radiation.

The Natural Greenhouse Effect

Starter: Watch the YouTube video to the right

•The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring process that aids in heating the Earth's surface and atmosphere.
•It results from the fact that certain atmospheric gases, such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane, are able to change the energy balance of the planet by absorbing longwave radiation emitted from the Earth's surface.
•Without the greenhouse effect life on this planet would probably not exist as the average temperature of the Earth would be a chilly -18° Celsius, rather than the present 15° Celsius. 

The Atmospheric Energy Budget 
•The atmosphere is an open system, receiving radiation from both the sun and the earth itself. The energy of the earth is very small, but it does have an effect. Incoming solar radiation is referred to as insolation.
•The main energy that drives all of our weather systems and our climate comes from the sun. The vast majority of this energy is absorbed at the equator whereas energy is generally lost in the polar regions.  However, this energy is redistributed to higher latitudes by wind and air circulations.

The energy balance between solar and long wave radiation in the atmospheric system 
The earth receives 342 Wm2 of short wave radiation from the sun, we call this insolation, and it is mainly comprised of visible light and infrared heat.
When the sun’s energy reaches the earth it is dispersed in different ways. 32% (107 Wm2) is immediately reflected the clouds, dust particles and the earth’s surface back in to space; this is known as the albedo or reflectivity of the earth.
This leaves 235Wm2 of solar energy to be absorbed by the earth. To achieve a stable climate the earth must radiate the same amount of heat back into space.
The earth emits longwave radiation, however, some of this trapped for a period of time by greenhouse gases present in the earth’s atmosphere, e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour. This process allows the earth to warm to a temperature that supports life on earth and it is known as the natural greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse gases re-emit the radiation, which is then returned to space, creating radiative equilibrium.

​The Earth's Energy Budget

•The source of energy for planet Earth is the sun.
•Incoming short-wave solar radiation (light) hits the Earth’s surface and is radiated back out as long-wave heat radiation, which warms the atmosphere.
•This natural greenhouse effect ensures that life on Earth can continue.
•However, the global energy budget varies over time and space and a variety of feedback mechanisms have maintained balance in the past. This may not be the case any longer as numerous changes are pushing the atmospheric system too hard and it may not be resilient enough to cope.
•The changes to the global energy budget are both natural and human-induced.
•Natural factors include variations in solar output, global dimming, volcanic eruptions and changes to the composition of the atmosphere itself.
•Changes have occurred for millennia but the current speed of change is the problem.

atmosphere-as-a-system.pdf
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The causes of climate change

Long-wave Radiation is the energy leaving the earth as infrared radiation at low energy and contains less energy than shortwave radiation. Generally emitted by cold bodies.  
Convection is the transfer of heat by movement of a gas or liquid
Conduction is the transfer of heat by contact 
*Greenhouse Effect - Process where water vapour, C02, CH4 & CFCs allow SW energy from the sun to pass through the atmposhere and heat up the earth. However some of the resultant LW radiation is trapped leading to a heating of the earth. 
*Enhanced Greenhouse Effect occurs as a result of increased quantities of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere owing to human activities and their impact on these fragile atmospheric systems. 

Videos explaining how the earth's energy budget works:
Draw an annotated diagram to show the atmospheric system in terms of the relationship between INPUTS (solar radiation) and OUTPUTS (longwave radiation). (6 marks)
Should include…..
Incoming shortwave (solar) radiation  (1mark)
Some outgoing longwave (infrared) radiation (1 mark)
Some of the outgoing radiation being reflected and absorbed (1 mark)
A layer of greenhouse gas (1 mark)
A further 2 marks for the further detail and accuracy of the diagram (annotations? )
 
The Milankovitch cycles and climate change today

Sun spots

changes_in_the_earths_energy_balance_2020.pptx
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The enhanced GREENHOUSE effect

​LO: The enhanced greenhouse effect and international variations in greenhouse gas sources and emissions, in relation to economic development, globalization and trade.
Picture
Introduction: Watch the below videos. Draw an annotated diagram which explains the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
International variations in Greenhouse gases
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​Enquiry question:  What are the international variations in Greenhouse Gases and emissions?

Read the information on kognity and complete all of the tasks on the weebly. Use your notes and conclusions to create an analysis that describes and explains international variations in greenhouse gas sources and emissions based on variations in emissions, emissions per capita and the link between emissions and globalization and trade .

Success criteria: Use the 4P's approach to structure your response:

1. Place - What are the global patterns of greenhouse emissions? How are these linked to economic development? What are the similarities and differences between cumulative emissions, annual emissions and emissions per capita?

2. Processes - What are the sources of these emissions?  Do the emissions just affect the emitting countries or are there processes in place that disperse the problem? How do atmospheric processes mean that emissions are an international concern?  How are the emissions connected to processes of globalisation and trade?

3. Possibility - What steps could be taken to reduce emissions? How will this need to be connected to trade and globalization? What are the targets (SDG's) to reduce emissions and reduce impacts on MIC's & LIC's. 

​4. Power - Who will be the key decision makers in the future patterns of emissions? Think about national and international politics, the SDGs as well as big business and ground roots environmental activists  as well as those governments who are promoting economic growth through industrialisation and processes of globalization. .

Your analysis can take any form that you judge to be appropriate: a written analysis, slide show, infographic or video could all work. You must include place specific data and graphics.

​1. Variations in emissions 
​

​The map above shows the cumulative emissions of each nation through time from the industrial revolution in 1750 to 2014.

1) Use the map to describe the patterns of cumultive emissions over time. You should include comment on: the UK, Western Europe, North America, China, India, Russia and other regions.
2) Describe current cumulative totals with reference to specific data.

3. What does this map show? How is this different from Map 1 above?
4. Describe the patterns shown with specific reference to data. What are the similarities and differences between this and the first map? Why are they so similar?

b) Emissions per capita
Discuss: 
Why might we expect emissions per capita to be different from total emissions? What variations do you expect and why?

1) Describe the pattern shown in the map. Again, make sure that your description includes reference to Western Europe, US, Canada, China, India, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Australia and Saudi Arabia. You must include data.
2) Try to explain the patterns shown: why is China much lower than in total emissions? Why do the countries of Europe seem so relatively low? Why are Australia, USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia so low? Explain the data for Russia.
Picture
3. Study the graph above. Describe and explain the patterns shown - 
  • Which country has seen the biggest increase in CO2 since 1970?
  • Comment on US Co2 emissions since 1970.
  • How many billion tonnes of Co2 is Asia Pacific producing in 2015?
Emissions and trade and globalization
A country’s carbon emissions are generally measured as the emissions that occur within its border.  This is sometimes referred to as “territorial-based” emissions. This method takes no account of emissions which may be imported or exported in the form of traded goods. “Consumption-based” accounting adjusts CO2 emissions for this trade of emissions and more accurately reflects the emissions necessary to support a given country’s way of living.

1) Study both of the graphs below and describe in your own words what each shows.
2) How does this data support the idea that we should look beyond greenhouse emissions produced only within countries?

​
Picture
3. Emissions and globalisation and trade

Study the map below very carefully. It shows CO2 "embedded in trade". 

Net emissions transfers      =       CO2 embedded in imported goods      -      the CO2 embedded in exported goods. 

This tells us whether a country is a net exporter or importer of emissions. Positive values (red) show that a country is a net importer of emissions. Negative values (blue) show net exporters. 

Here we see an important East-to-West relation, with large exports from Asia and Eastern Europe into Western Europe and North America. 
In other words: some of the CO2 produced (and reported) in emission records of Asian and Eastern European countries is for the production of goods consumed in Western Europe and North America. 

Based on the updated data gathered by Peters et al. (2012) and the Global Carbon Project
, if we switched to a consumption-based reporting system (which corrects for this trade),  the annual CO2 emissions of many European economies would increase by more than 30% (the UK by 38%; Sweden by 66%; and Belgium’s emissions would nearly double); and the USA’s emissions would increase by 7%. On the other hand, China’s emissions would decrease by 13%; India’s by 9%; Russia’s by 14% and South Africa by 29%.
​​

assessment 

‘The causes of climate change are mainly natural in origin.’ To what extent do you agree with this statement? (10 marks)

​‘Population growth is the main reason why climate change is unavoidable in the 21st century.’ To what extent do you agree with this statement? (10 marks)
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